Russia, Iran and the BRICS Corridor of Peace

Vladimir Putin gave Trump an Inauguration Day present on January 20th, by signing a mutual defense and strategic development pact with Iran.

This in turn has had a tap the brakes effect on the main regional arsonist of the Middle East: Benjamin Netanyahu. A politician whose political survival if not staying out of jail depends on maintaining Israel in a state of perpetual war.

Iran Just Became a Harder Target for U.S. or Israeli Strikes Thanks to Russia

After one Israeli Air Force air raid involving the supposedly invisible and invincible Lockheed Martin F35 jets that boasted of knocking out Iran's air defenses in a single night—a preposterous and physically impossible claim for a country 2.5 times the size of Texas. But Netanyahu and his advisors are now aware that any future Israeli air campaign against Iran would invoke the military consultations aspect of the Russian-Iranian strategic agreement. Which means, while Russia is in no way obligated to fight Iran's enemies for her (as events recently demonstrated in Syria), Russian air defenses and electronic warfare systems manned by active duty Russian personnel or mixed Russian-Iranian crews will be defending Iranian skies against future U.S. or Israeli air assaults. This is in addition to Iran replacing its mostly un-flyable 1970s vintage American-made F-4 and F-14 fighters with modern Su30 and Su35 Gen 4++ jets.

Iran is also likely to purchase ultra-quiet Kilo-class diesel electric submarines from Russia in the coming years, which can be operated from highly fortified concrete or blasted out of solid rock coastal pens. While Iran has already demonstrated its formidable ballistic missiles can easily penetrate Israeli Iron Dome and American THAAD defenses, each Kilo-class boat would be capable of launching not only Russian torpedoes, but much-longer ranged salvoes of Russian high supersonic Yakhont (P800 Oniks) or soon, jointly developed Iranian hypersonic anti-shipping missiles at American and Israeli warships. The stakes for Tel Aviv and Washington just got much higher.

Russian Support Can Cool the Ardor for Striking Tehran in Washington and Tel Aviv

What's coming for the Middle East is similar to the stabilizing effect which happened regarding both South Korea and Japan, whose governments calmed down after Russia concluded a much more defined military alliance with North Korea. In fact, the failure of the recent coup attempt in Seoul was arguably linked to South Korean industrialists and politicians as well as many generals not wanting to provoke a conflict with a now Russian-backed North Korea, by sending Kiev not only weapons, but troops to supposedly fight the North Korean ghost divisions in Kursk Oblast.

Within South Korea, there are many who recognize the true purpose of a 75-year-old U.S. occupation is not to protect them from the North, but to prevent them from reunifying with their countrymen and switching from being an American vassal state to a Russia and China-friendly, nuclear-armed power. Something hardly anyone in Washington's considered is how many South Koreans view the North Korean Bomb as ultimately, a future unified Korean Nuclear Deterrent that Koreans would be loathe to give up in the event of reunification.

The Distinction Between Russia's Treaty With North Korea vs Moscow's Pact with Iran

The real power of these recently concluded agreements between Moscow and Pyongyang as well as Tehran is not the military alliances, but in the economics and trade finance. For North Korea, Russian food, oil and natural gas as well as massive orders for munitions and artillery systems means economic growth after decades of Juche isolation. The financial aspect excludes the dollar and euro from bi-lateral trade, allowing a high level of stability in financial dealings, against which DC, London and Brussels have few if any levers left to pull.

Set against the already most sanctioned nation on Earth growing (despite a costly war), Trump's day three in office threats to issue more sanctions and tariffs on nearly non-existent U.S.-Russian trade look laughable. Russia's economy has a problem with inflation, as does the Collective West in a more severe form. Russia is one of the lowest debt per-capita industrialized nations on Earth, with a debt to GDP ratio under 25%, whereas Western debts and real estate bubble prices and associated costs of living are skyrocketing to new heights. But simply throwing the 18th or 19th round of EU and US sanctions on the grill isn't going to change anything. Moscow is already rapidly adapting Russian maritime traffic away from the Baltic and Black Seas to the Arctic and Pacific Ocean shipping routes, in response to the most recently touted sanctions on so-called 'shadow fleet' aka non-Western insured tankers. And the new emerging corridor Russia is building with its partners promises to make Western leverage even weaker in the coming years.

Mackinder's Heartland Theory and Aeronaval Might vs. Overland Eurasian Trade

It's no secret thanks to Alexander Dugin and other Russian thinkers who have popularized Mackinder Heartland Theory that Russia through most of her history has been an unconquerable land power. Whereas Great Britain and its successor in running an empire the United States have relied on first sea and later airpower to dominate much of the world. But with no SWIFT transactions to shut down or dollars involved, and diminished ability to carry out piracy and harassment on the high seas (like NATO is currently attempting against Russian tanker traffic), the US and its vassals lose more leverage over global trade and energy flows.

The Empire through its proxies especially in Baluchistan on the shared Iranian-Pakistan border can still attack pipelines. But sabotaged pipelines on land are much easier and cheaper to repair than the Nordstream 1 and 2 gas pipes that the Biden Administration proudly destroyed at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. And transit revenues give local tribes ample incentive to guard the infrastructure.

That said, the biggest long-term blow to the US foreign policy of isolating North Korea and Iran is the opportunity for mutual prosperity in these nations, including via transit revenues earned on gas flowing to South Korea and South Asia, respectively. Obviously, Iran with its vast hydrocarbon reserves along the Persian Gulf and its proximity to the rich Gulf states as well as the Indian subcontinent is geographically blessed, in contrast with North Korea's decades of relative isolation in Northeast Asia. Nonetheless, both 'pariah' nations are now part of a quarter billion people-strong multi-trillion dollar economic block with Russia. If you add in countries like Vietnam that have FTAs with the EAEU or the new BRICS member Indonesia, the population and GDP figures for the Russia-friendly bloc are much larger. And the populations of the BRICS economies already dwarf the G7 and command a larger share of real global industrial production and trade than the Collective West and its Japanese vassal.

The Anglo-Americans Keep Beating the Tired Sanctions Will Finally Destroy Russia Drumbeat

Despite hopes in Washington and London that sanctions and wartime disruptions would collapse her economy, Russia has become the 4th largest economy in the world, measured by Purchasing Power Parity. Russia has endured becoming the most sanctioned country on Earth thanks to its high resource autarchy and strong relationships across the EAEU as well as the BRICS and Global South countries. The increase in trade amongst these strategically cooperating nations increases the economic activity of North Korea and Iran and thus, their internal political stability. This list, of course, will not stay at four. Partially thanks to Russian efforts as well as through Western hubris led by the United States of Sanctions, the block of four is set to continue to expand to other powers targeted by the Collective West.

Russia and China's Interests Align, But They Are Not Synonymous: China as a the World's Largest Economy Can Play the Long Game and Wait Out the GAE

While China would be a logical next addition to complete this fortress Eurasia arc, Beijing won't commit to a formal defense treaty with Moscow due to their bad history with one during the 1950s USSR-PRC pact under Mao. China's massive exports to the US also ensure that, while the Chinese continue to massively build up its aeronaval and missile forces as well as gold vaults and other vital commodity reserves as war chests, Beijing will characteristically lean on Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang to buy time--until the last possible moment of a hot war with the Americans. China is after all, historically a mercantile giant along the Silk Roads, rather than a warrior empire. And the Chinese have every reason to be patient as they watch the Americans accumulate 3.5 trillion dollars in annual deficits, recognizing that time is on their side.

Unfortunately for the Russians, Iranians and North Koreans, they will bear the brunt of a fading Globalist American Empire's wrath in the meantime until the dollar finally collapses. With that being said, even a fraction of Chinese manufacturing going over to semi-wartime production added to Russian industrial might simply cannot be matched by the Collective West. Any scenario whereby China if pressed too far over Taiwan begins to openly arm and send ex-PLA volunteers to Russia would be a nightmare for NATO. Likewise Russia and soon Iran via the Belt and Road Central Asian pipelines, highways and roadways represent unsinkable, unblockadeable sources of hydrocarbons to China in a wartime or near-wartime scenario. For this reason, our analysis has long maintained that China has a strategic interest in ensuring Russia achieves most if not all of its objectives in the Special Military Operation.

If the Western bankers ever achieved their pipe dream of a vassalized Russia, this would threaten China's entire northern flank and Central Asian hinterland in the event of WW3 in the Pacific. Which is a big reason why Beijing's hardliners have given the Iranians and North Koreans especially their blessing to send Russia shells, drones and in the NKPA's case, long-range artillery cannons and 'Kimskander' missiles. It hasn't been said in the Western legacy media or defense press but it's highly unlikely a notoriously paranoid North Korean government would supply Russia with millions of artillery rounds if it wasn't confident its old ally China would replace those shell stocks with massive shipments to backfill Pyongyang's arsenals.

Russia-Iran-North Korea's Very Limited Reach in the Western Hemisphere

Turning to the Western Hemisphere, the situation is much more unfavorable for the Eurasian bloc. Which is one of the reasons as the U.S. faces failure after failure in Eurasia that the Trump 2.0 foreign policy is turning to placing demands if not yet ultimatums on American allies in the Western Hemisphere, including Canada, Mexico, Panama and Danish-ruled (for now) Greenland. Venezuela, and old Soviet allies Cuba and Nicaragua, let alone tiny Panama, are all too far away and much too close to the US to seek direct Russian military support.

The best Moscow can do to help its friends in Latin America is send arms and train Venezuelan, Cuban and Nicaraguan soldiers, while making the occasional Russian Navy port call. The Panamanians are so intimidated by the new Administration they are unlikely to make even these rudimentary acts of defiance much less fully align with the pro-BRICS Bolivarian socialists of Caracas. In the Southern Cone, landlocked Bolivia has faced one political crisis after another due to Washington and London coveting its immense lithium deposits. To complete the Americas picture from a Russian perspective, the USA's favorite source of Latin American cannon fodder Colombia has supplied quite literally thousands of mercenaries to Ukraine. Hundreds of Colombian Army and police veterans have been killed in combat with Russian forces, exploited as expendables by the Zelensky regime.

Russia Will Maintain a Naval Presence in the Med and Indian Ocean via Bases in Eastern Libya and in Iran

As for the Middle East and North African (MENA) nations, Algeria has excellent defense and commercial ties especially in natural gas with Russia, but won't risk the wrath of their former colonial overlords the French in hosting a permanent Russian naval base on the Mediterranean. Egypt's internal problems necessitate maintaining aid from the Saudis and Emiratis as well as good relations with all sides of Cold War 2. That leaves eastern Libya and Iran will likely be the ones hosting Russian naval bases to replace the Tartus base in Syria.

Russia's Energy Route Through Afghanistan to Pakistan

Closer to Iran, the next nation to seek security arrangements with Moscow will likely be the Taliban government of Afghanistan. Afghanistan is another special case and will sponsor the expansion of a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) corridor from Central Asia to South Asia, including via the famous Khyber Pass highways and soon, a new Chinese-Pakistani built railway.

Russia has already tested the route and at the Kazan Forum 2025 will sign a deal with Afghanistan for the transfer of Russian LPG via tanker truck and in the future, rail tanker convoys. Building rail lines through the high altitudes and extreme winter climates of Central Asia has historically proven to be a big challenge. One that in some mountain ranges requiring lengthy tunneling can exceed the difficulty and expense of installing a pipeline. Where today there are tanker trailers and tomorrow maybe tanker rail cars, someday in several years there will be gas pipelines. These in turn will earn the Afghan government badly needed hard currency from transit fees and will provide the energy needed to rebuild their economy after decades of war. But that's not all.

How Iran Impacts Pakistan's Eventual Turn Away from Washington

While at first, the LNG will go to Iran for re-export to other markets, it will eventually create virtuous cycles for integrating the Iran as the greatest Middle Eastern gas exporter with the whole of Central and South Asia. The biggest customer for LNG and pipeline gas in the area is of course India. However, the route to India goes through very unstable Pakistan. The American puppets in Islamabad just handed former Prime Minister Imran Khan a 14-year-sentence, despite millions of Pakistanis filling he streets in protest.

Pakistan, since Khan's ouster by the US backed Pakistani military, of the legally elected and extremely popular Prime Minister Khan, has become unstable. Economically, Pakistan is in trouble. Militarily, despite some impressive Chinese armaments, Pakistan also has issues, having a hot on and off conflict with both Afghanistan and Iran and a hot peace with India.

Eyes on the Prize: South Asia's 2 Billion Energy and Food Consumers Represent a Boon for Russia and Iran

Considering what's at stake, it is not hard to imagine that between Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and India, a counter-coup could be executed against the U.S. Embassy's grip over Pakistan, which surely must annoy the Pakistanis 'Iron Brothers' in China as well. With the return of Khan to power, we could see the opening of Russian LNG routes through Pakistan to India and the prosperity that would follow would seriously lower Indo-Pakistani tensions in the area. Russia and Iran would be selling their oil and natural gas to 2 billion people across the Indian Subcontinent. After this, the BRICS CSP (Corridors of Stability and Prosperity) would become turbocharged. This is the killer combination that can slay the Empire of Chaos' miasma of endless war and corruption that has dragged down the Iranians and South Asians for decades.

The future of Russia, Iran and their energy ties to South Asia is looking bright.