Russia's 21st Century Northern Sea Route
The history of humanity has been defined by routes along the geography of the world. Routes that determined the migration of prey animals, routes that facilitated population migrations, routes that defined both trade and warfare. Throughout all of this, the best routes were always the sea lanes, which allowed an unmatched flexibility for seaborne armies and traders bypassing obstacles such as hostile tribes and nations, plus rivers, swamps, deserts or mountains.
The Roots of American Naval Strategy in Alfred Thayer Mahan and Halford John Mackinder's Early 20th Century Theories from the Age of Empires
The US has recognized this fact since the early 20th century, and has built the world's most powerful fleets for one overarching goal: under the pretense of freedom of international navigation, to control global sea lanes with the threat of military force. This is the one of the last remaining weapons of US hegemony, along with the dollar's world reserve currency status and mass media propaganda. As with all the other levers of control, this too is tottering.
The British geostrategist Halford John Mackinder's World Island, which consists of Europe, Asia and Africa, can make do without Washington-controlled sea-lanes. And in case of a Third World War making shipping hazardous due to constant drone, submarine and supersonic/hypersonic anti-ship missile attacks, Eurasia and Africa could survive without North American markets, while the US and UK (let alone Washington's days-numbered dollar hegemony) would not survive without the World Island. This remains true even if we see a serious pivot under the second Trump Administration toward Monroe Doctrine-justified bullying and concentration on the Western Hemisphere, while Washington dumps its failed gambit of breaking up Russia through the weaponization of Ukraine.
American Hypocrisy About the UNLOS and New Overland and Maritime Routes Exposing Washington's Weaknesses
The US places its hegemony under the guise of “global maritime rules and regulations”, a sub-chapter of the so-called Rules Based World Order. The amusing aspect of this is that Washington sometimes demands other countries respect the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) while not having ratified the treaty itself. The disciples of this ideology are nonetheless hopping mad these days, due to the major shifts in world trade Russia champions. Not only does the International North-South Transport Corridor route from Russia to Iran via the Caspian Sea and then on to Pakistan and India bypass any potential US or proxy naval interference; another key global route, the Northern Sea Route, is also beyond the reach of American blackmail. Including via attacks from 'Ukrainian' (read: MI6 aided) naval drones that have recently targeted Russian shipping in the Mediterranean Sea and could attack Russian vessels in the Baltic Sea after being launched from NATO territorial waters.
Perhaps some dim awareness of the major shifts in the global balance of trade and power has motivated newly sworn-in Secretary of State Marco Rubio to sing a different tune from his prior neocon history as the junior US Senator from Florida. Last week Rubio acknowledged that Washington must accept a multipolar world. But such nice words are still a long way from demonstrated actions.
NSR sea lane compared to crowded, Suez Canal and Red Sea-dependent shipping routes from NW Europe to East Asia courtesy of @SputnikInt on X
What is the Northern Sea Route (NSR)?
The Northern Sea Route runs from Russia’s Murmansk to the Barents Sea, a 5600 km (just over 3,400 miles) route under Russian control and protection, with ports up and down the whole route providing key infrastructure. Russia’s fleet of 56 icebreakers already in service, more than all other nations combined, keep the route open. Even though sea ice has thinned and somewhat retreated, this is not the fantasy of the climate change cultists, sea ice is still quite real and in place and requires force to break through.
To compare the differences, the Rotterdam-Yokohama route through the Suez Canal runs 21,500 kilometers (over 13,000 miles), while the same through the Northern Sea route is only 11,900 km (7,400 miles). That cuts down the trip to 14 days and over multiple trips, saves a massive amount of fuel. Additionally, unlike the Suez route, the Arctic sea ice and polar bears pose much less of a threat than the pirates from Somalia, the Houthis missiles and drones around Yemen, as well as the risk of accidents within the Suez Canal itself. Let's not forget how not so long ago, one errant tanker blocked the entire canal for over a month. The losses to shippers from this accident ran into the tens of billions. The Houthi blockade of all U.S.-NATO and Israeli affiliated shipping has cost Egypt billions in lost transit revenues, and the NSR is likely to diminish Suez Canal demand in the coming years and decades.
China's Interest in the NSR aka the Arctic Silk Road
Russia inaugurated the NSR with full service in 2015, just a few months after the first Western sanctions were imposed over Russian reunification with Crimea. The volume of trade surged from 5 million tons to 37.9 million tons in 2024. Even with all the post-2022 sanctions, the volumes continue to grow. Suez-reliant nations such as India and Pakistan are also looking into limited use of the NSR, while China naturally sees the NSR as a great improvement over the Suez from both a shipping costs and national security perspective. In a scenario of confrontation on the brink of shooting war with the US over Taiwan and the South China Sea lanes, China can count on the Russian Navy to secure its Arctic flank and keep vital sea lanes open into its northeastern seaboard (Yellow Sea) ports.
Over the past twenty years, Russia has invested billions in building up the ports located along the Arctic Ocean and its inlets. Many of these ports stand at the mouths of rivers that lead deeper into the vast Siberian and northwestern Russian land mass. Equally, Russia has reinvigorated the often-abandoned Soviet military infrastructure in these areas, creating a massive aeronaval defensive belt to ensure that the route remains sovereign Russian territory, open for the peaceful passage of all merchant vessels.
Trump Has a Serious Case of Russian Arctic Real Estate Envy, Which is Driving DJT's Push for a Grand US-Greenland-Canada Anschluss
Donald Trump's envy of Russia's dominant position in the Arctic, as well as Greenland's geography along the shortest ICBM and hypersonic missile great circle route between northern Russia and the US heartland, are among the reasons Trump has demanded that Greenlanders join the USA. But thus far the weak Danes, who gave away all their armor and artillery to the Ukrainians at Washington's behest, are growling that they will not surrender the territory. And only a small percentage of polled Greenlanders have said that they're ready for their vast, desolate island with barely 55,000 people on it to become like Puerto Rico in the US tax code, but much bigger, colder and icier with polar bears. The vast majority of Canadians have also flatly turned Trump's offer of a great North American anschluss down. If Trump is to achieve his dream of a new North American Colossus, political and economic circumstances would have to radically shift just to get Greenland, much less Canada, flying the Stars and Stripes.
The Northwest Passage through Canada's Arctic archipelago remains icebound for almost the entire year. Map source: Wikipedia commons
Washington and Ottawa's Elusive Northwest Passage: The Canadian Arctic Route from the Atlantic to the Pacific Remains Impractical
Speaking of the Canadians, even though Canada has lost nearly all say as to what the US does in Canada’s territorial waters, which is the price of being a vassal, they cannot compete with Russia in the Arctic. And not just due to their much smaller population (excluding a 'union' with the USA), it's also a matter of geography. Simply put, the much-sought-after by Europeans Northwest Passage to Asia during the 16th through 18th centuries Age of Discovery, which is often ballyhooed by geographically and shipping economics-challenged people, makes no practical sense. It simply spans one side of North America to the other. If goods are flowing from the Pacific to Europe, they still have the entire Northern Atlantic to cross. If goods are going from Asia or Europe into the US, why wouldn't they simply go to year-round ice-free ports on either the U.S. Atlantic or Pacific Coasts, and then ship by truck or rail.
Additionally, the Canadian Arctic route has many more issues with ice than the Russian route. Even with 'climate change' and the 'thawing Arctic', neither the US nor Canada have enough icebreaking capacity to deal with these problems. As for the Eurovassals, they are once again proving that they are morons.
Going Around the World Island Via the Suez Remains Costlier Than the NSR
In their manic drive to do all things bad to Russia, the EUers and their slave states have refused to use the Northern Sea Route, preferring the longer, more expensive Suez route. This makes about as much sense as their ban on Russian overflights, which resulted in enormous losses for their airlines while Emirates and Turkish Airlines and other Middle Eastern and Asian-flagged carriers continue their routes over Russia.
Now, if this was a general blockade, it might have had some effect. But of course this has been a one-sided question, limited only to America’s most sanctions-compliant vassals, be they Europeans or the Japanese and South Koreans. Just like with the overflights over and into Russia, which the Turks, Chinese, Vietnamese, Thais, Singaporeans and Indians all continued, meaning Asians continue the cheaper, faster routes that are full of customers, the vassals are stuck going around Russia, adding hours to their flight times and hiking fuel and crew time costs.
The cheaper, faster Northern Sea Route serves Chinese and Indian goods well on their way to Europe. The route is faster, cheaper and presents none of the threats associated with Suez and Red Sea passage, especially with a rampaging Israel on the cusp of a possibly expanded war with its neighbors over the mass expulsion of millions of Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank. US vassals continue piling up serious costs, which hit the bottom line of their goods, by taking the long and slow ways around the World Island. The whole shipping industry saw how just one ship crashed in the Suez, and their costs exploded. Additionally, by its unbound nature, the NSR can accept almost any sized ships transporting massive quantities to Asian markets, whereas Pana-max and Suez-max limited vessels cannot transport as many bulk commodities such as crude oil, coal or grain like Russian NSR icebreaker-escorted vessels can.
Additionally, the US has tried to sanction the Indians and Chinese and others with secondary sanctions and penalties for using the NSR. While this has had some impact, the parallel manic desire of Washington to dominate and crush all present and possible rivals, has made sure that all targeted nations have continued to invest in and expand the use of the NSR.
Sun Tzu made it quite clear in The Art of War, which Napoleon also famously quoted: Never interfere when your enemy is making a mistake.