Egypt and the Sudanese Civil War

We asked Ahmed to write a short summary of Egypt's role in the Sudanese civil war and Cairo's attempts at mediation in it. Although it is currently the largest and deadliest conflict on the African continent, the Republic of Sudan and the recent breakaway South Sudan fit into a larger geopolitical context, whereby China has become Africa's largest single country trading partner and Russia is attempting to dislodge the historic colonial powers led by Great Britain and France (who both operate with American support) as the guarantor of external security for development across the mineral-rich Sahel.

Recently the ambush that the wartime Ukrainian regime took credit for with Tuareg and jihadist forces killing or capturing scores of Wagner PMC mercenaries made international headlines. But the Sudan conflict is dragging on for years, despite strong support for the internationally recognized government--most likely because a unified Sudan would strengthen its economic ties with the BRICS+ powers for developing Sudanese oil, gas, gold and other natural resources.

-- James Smith

Editor-in-Chief and Publisher, ExitStrategy.World

August 11, 2024

Brief history of the Current Sudanese Civil War

It is important to note the context of the situation in Sudan and Egypt before delving into this topic.

In 2019, the president of Sudan, Omar Al-Bashir, was overthrown after months of protests, thus ending his almost 30-year rule of Sudan. Bashir had ruled alongside Islamist-backed parties and his oligarchical allies. However, the internationally supported democratic transition did not happen--instead authority was divided between the Transitional Sovereignty Council, which included the members of the current Defense Minister and de facto head of state, Abdel El Fattah El Burhan, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Regarding the origins of RSF, it was founded by Al-Bashir for the expressed purpose of genocide and ethnic cleansing in Darfur. Dagalo was an illiterate camel herder at the time who was promoted to head Arab militias to “fight against the insurgents”. The crimes of the Janjaweed are well documented by the United Nations and other international organizations, the RSF was formally established in 2013 as an attempt to consolidate all the unruly Arab militias under a single umbrella. Eventually, after the 2019 push for unity, an uneasy peace was struck between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces.

Thus, two comparable armies--both consisting of 100,000 men each--operating under the same national flag but independently of each other, was a recipe for disaster. It was doomed to blow up eventually--after all, if you have a national army but ethnic or ideological militias comparable in military power, clashes are inevitable.

It did not help that the RSF, being independent and not being bothered by formal Sudanese institutions, have branched out into business and establishing foreign relations by themselves. For example, the RSF established relations with the Russian private military contractor (PMC) Wagner, and the RSF starting acquiring Sudanese gold mines at a rapid pace. Thus ensuring the RSF's military and financial independence outside the state structures.

So with a parallel army, economy, and security service in place, all it takes to light the powder keg is one greedy man – and he exists, Dagalo was head of the RSF.

Eventually, the Sudanese Armed Forces could no longer pretend to have a blind eye towards the RSF, and demanded they integrate immediately within the armed forces, which was rejected, the RSF mobilized and stopped receiving commands from the Sudanese Armed Forces, with the first clashes starting at the 11th and escalating till it started at the 15th in full swing.

Photo credit above: Sudan map with Egyptian border and Port Sudan location on the Red Sea

Uploaded to iStock by PeterHermesFurian July 2016

What is the role of Egypt in Republic of the Sudan?

The Arab Republic of Egypt, bordering Sudan to the north, respects the sovereignty and does not interfere in the internal affairs of all nations. Egypt only backs the national armies of a country and their national governments, as supporting Sudanese militias or illegitimate representatives is out of the question.

Egypt supports the Sudanese Armed Forces as it is the national army of Sudan. Abdel El Fattah El Burhan, after breaking out of Khartoum and establishing his government in Port Sudan, had his first foreign delegate meeting with the president of Egypt, Abdel el Fattah el Sisi. In this meeting, they discussed the affairs of Sudan, with Sisi vowing to support Burhan.

In the beginning stages of the war Egypt had a possible interest in partaking directly–a contingent of Egyptian airmen and pilots were held hostage by the RSF after their military airport was seized. This incident happened during Egyptian military exercises being conducted with the Sudanese Army. All Egyptian airmen and the pilots detained by the RSF were returned safely. Later on, unidentified aircraft attacked RSF positions across northern Sudan and near Port Sudan, Dagalo blamed “foreign nations”--although the strike aircraft most likely were Egyptian Air Force, acting in limited retaliation for the previous RSF hostage taking of their colleagues.

Egypt has no interest in seeing the RSF take over Sudan, as it is nothing but an armed gang and a bunch of thugs, rapists, and criminals. World governments only recognize Burhan as the president of Sudan--although the African Union and Ethiopia held meetings with Dagalo to try and broker a ceasefire.

Photo credit above: A market street in Port Sudan

Uploaded to iStock by JordiStock July 2019

The international context of the Sudanese Civil War:

Russia pulls out Wagner, Sides with the Internationally Recognized Sudanese Government

It is also reported that Wagner PMC ceased their support to the RSF halfway into the Sudan war, and the Russian government decided to side with the legitimate Sudanese authority. Wagner PMC has been redeployed to the Sahel, where they are fighting a proxy war with NATO and French-backed Tuareg and Islamist militants in Mali.

The war in Sudan has had devastating consequences, over 7 million people have been displaced, with a further 2 million refugees abroad--mostly in Ethiopia and Egypt--and anywhere from 150,000 to 300,000 have reportedly been killed. Dozens of massacres, famine, genocide, ethnic cleansing, deportations, and abuse of Sudanese refugees across of Africa have been recorded. It is unlikely the situation will be remedied in the near future.

The Sudanese economy has tanked and central and eastern African nations, which rely on Port Sudan for their exports and imports, have taken a hit. South Sudan, the newest independent country in the world, has also taken a hit, as its pipelines of oil for export have been damaged and are operating below normal capacity due to the ongoing civil war in the rest of Sudan.