Victory Day Special

If you're a young man of draft age (18-30) or a prior service military specialist in the Baltic States, Poland or Romania, hopefully you'll read this. Or receive a heartfelt warning from a relative or family friend regarding what's happening to young Ukrainian males right now, with major pressure from Kiev on the European Union to forcibly repatriate its draft dodgers and the denial of passport renewals for Ukrainian men living abroad. Such increasingly coercive measures could very well--in many months to just a few short years--be coming your way. Because in order for NATO to avoid accepting a defeat (in front of the world majority that lives outside its informational bubble) in the form of a negotiated partition of the Ukraine, the 'world's most powerful military alliance' will need more bodies. Lots of warm bodies.

Above OpenArt AI image: A visualization of crack Polish paratroopers assembled before battle with advancing Russian troops on the Maidan Square in Kiev, early autumn 2025. As Ukrainian losses mount, at some point in the not-at-all-distant future NATO will either have 'crap or get off the pot' regarding the overt, no-longer-disavowable deployment of its active duty soldiers in Ukraine.

And let's be blunt: with the notable exception of a few hundred more Anglo-American and even some Canadian advisors, those bodies aren't bloody likely to be Anglo-Saxons. Call it exercising Anglo-Saxon and especially British deep state privilege within NATO pointing at Slavs and Vlachs: How about you chaps and Ivan fight?

For all their pompously belligerent politicians yearning to refight the Crimean War, the British, fielding the remnants of a once mighty Army of the Rhine that can now be comfortably seated inside Wembley Stadium, lack anywhere near the deployable numbers needed to fight Russia in the Ukraine. To paraphrase a famous line from the first Top Gun movie, British politicians and spooks are eagerly writing checks the people of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales won't cash in Union Jack-draped caskets coming back from Odessa.

The UK's Canadian former colonials have a similar casualties reluctance problem. It's one thing to send Canadian-Ukrainian volunteers or even a few advisors, quite another to openly send the Canadian Army to fight along the Dnieper. And the Biden Administration, at least through November, lacks the political will to see lots of active duty US servicemen coming back in caskets to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware--that of course, could change after the next Presidential Inauguration in 2025. All the WW3 hype you're reading in the papers right now about Russia performing exercises simulating the release of tactical nuclear weapons in response to statements by French President Emmanuel Macron and the Polish Foreign Minister about refusing to rule out sending ground troops remains brinksmanship and signaling--for now.

Especially If You Are Pro-Ukraine, You Should Listen to What Ukrainian Commanders and Exhausted Frontline Soldiers Have to Say--and Draw Your Own Conclusions

As many Ukrainian commanders admit, the greatest shortage the Ukrainian armed forces are facing isn't the so-called 'shell starvation' from inadequate deliveries of NATO caliber artillery rounds during months of Congressional haggling over American aid to Kiev. Nor is it a lack of NATO armor, with dozens more Abrams and Bradley armored personnel carriers on the way, even as the Gulf War-starring M1 tanks have reportedly been pulled back from the front lines due to too many of these vaunted weapons systems getting 'mobility killed' by cheap Russian FPV kamikaze drones. At least eight Abrams have been recorded as knocked out, and several captured M1 examples alongside their German counterparts the Leopard 2s were trucked to Moscow and put on display as war trophies for this week's May 9th Victory Day holiday festivities.

The UAF's biggest problem after waging a 'not one step back' mini-Stalingrad type battle for the now rubbled city of Bahkmut and the failure of the US/UK planned UAF summer offensive in 2023 is a critical lack of manpower. The Ukrainians simply don't have enough fresh troops to press their fingers into the dykes of leaky Russian advances across the Donbass, which collectively threaten a levee-breaching flood of Kiev's defenses across the eastern Ukraine. The Russian summer offensive, some Ukrainian analysts warn on Telegram, could be two pronged, with 50,000 or more Russian troops launching a diversionary offensive at the juncture of Sumy and Kharkov regions in the northeast to draw away the Ukrainians' remaining vital reserves, while the Russian forces further southwest in the Donbass attack the last remaining 2014 frontline fortress town of Toretsk and press their firepower advantage around the besieged city of Chasov Yar.

Some of the more pessimistic Ukrainian analysts are predicting that the Russians could reach the small junction cities of Pokrovsk and Konstanivika as soon as early summer. Given the mini-encirclement of UAF troops brewing around Krasnogorovka this week and some Ukrainian veterans speaking candidly on Zelensky regime TV about carrying on the war even after the painful territorial loss of the Donbass to the Russians, this scenario seems quite plausible.

Is This 'Defeatism' or Long Overdue Realism About the Limits of Previously Exploited as Inexhaustible Ukrainian Manpower?

The 2022 euphoria of forcing a Russian Army withdrawal from Kherson city or the rapid Ukrainian advance that autumn through grossly undermanned Russian lines in Kharkov region are distant memories. The grim daily business of attrition, the compound interest of war, has ground down the Ukrainian Army. Especially as the Russian Air Force no longer needs to fear depleted Soviet-legacy S300 long range Ukrainian air defenses and has consequently stepped up its use of standoff glide bombs lobbed from outside the Ukrainians' AD zones. The Russians are pummeling Ukraine’s front lines and rear positions with hundreds of these iron bombs per day. Many soldiers--whom if they're lucky have received barely two weeks leave over the past two years--tell Ukrainian journalists and pro-Kiev Telegram channels that they are mentally and physically exhausted.

One of Ukraine's senior generals responsible for military intelligence, Vadym Skibitsky, even told The Economist--a publication no one can accuse of being soft on the Kremlin or 'defeatist'--that Kiev has little hope of pushing the Russians back to Ukraine's 1991 borders. Skibitsky also said that the war will end at the negotiating table. So as in Korea back in the early 1950s, who wants to be the last man to die for some village on a map that may prove to be a mere bargaining chip?

Many people continue to believe Russia would be, if not at risk of major setbacks, at least severely intimidated by the prospect of France and Britain directly intervening in Ukraine. It's an absurd fantasy. France and the UK could not equip and sustain even two divisions for more than just a few weeks, and would then be effectively demilitarized for many years to come.

-- Will Schryver, @imetatronink, May 3, 2024

Romanian troops saluting in front of Odessa's Spaso-Preobrazhenskiy Cathedral as visualized by OpenArt AI (which somehow screws up the Romanian and Ukrainian flags)

EU is pushing war with Russia. I recommend to get out of Europe asap.

--Tobi, @explore_nica, May 6, 2024

Regardless of the precise timing, if several smaller cities and the larger Ukrainian-held Slavyansk/Kramatorsk agglomeration in the Donbass are enveloped by a Russian winter campaign after the ground freezes in early 2025, it's open steppes and small villages all the way to the Dnieper River and the suburbs of Ukraine's fourth largest city, Dnipro. If Moscow can mobilize several hundred thousand additional soldiers through the muddy season of autumn and the winter months, simultaneous Russian pushes through the western Donbass, around Kherson in the south, combined with an advance threatening Kharkov in the northeast become a potential nightmare scenario facing Kiev by late summer 2025. Hence the strong political hints, most recently joined in by US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, that NATO soldiers including Americans could be sent to openly fight for Ukraine.

France as the Likely Leader of a NATO 'Coalition of the Willing' Alongside Poland and Romania

Under their term-limited lame duck commander in chief Macron--despite a chorus of retired French generals hinting at disastrous unpreparedness in the army—Paris appears willing to send at least a few thousand men to fight for Ukraine. Joining this proud Gaullic contingent, which has reportedly already seen its Foreign Legionnaire vanguards arriving in Kharkov and Slavyansk--places well within range of Russian glide bomb strikes as well as Tornado MLRS salvoes--will be 'the Expendables'. That is, Anglo-French commanded soldiers from the nations which make up NATO's newly expanded 'Eastern Flank'. These include the Poles, Romanians, Balts and newly admitted to NATO Finns. With Swedish Gripen pilots possibly volunteering their services for the Ukrainian Air Force to try their luck flying cruise missile-launching sorties while taking off from western Ukrainian highways as well. Where the NATO ally-donated F16s, which are notoriously prone to foreign object engine damage from their unprotected intakes will operate from in western Ukraine, is an open question. But Russia's Foreign Ministry has already declared the nuclear-capable NATO Fighting Falcons to be a threat to which Moscow reserves the right to respond with any means necessary as Russian snap tactical nuke drills continue through Russia’s May holidays.

Why would Russia be worried over the deployment of a few thousand NATO troops anywhere in Ukraine? That's laughable. What they are worried about, is NATO Air Forces and what they may be planning as Ukro-NATO lines buckle. Hence the tac-nuke exercises.

Stavros Hadjiyiannis, @StavrosHadjiyia, May 6, 2024

With that in mind, as tensions continue to spiral amid the brinksmanship coming from the main NATO capitals and threats issued by Moscow, we thought today being День Победы would be a good time to remind Eastern European males with some savings in the tens of thousands of euros or at least, stable online sources of income that they have Latin American options to leave this expanding war and a potential draft notice behind via easily obtainable LatAm residency. And for Schengen passport holders these countries are just one trans-Atlantic flight on Iberian Airways from Spain to Mexico City, Bogota (and one or two more connecting flights) or Rio de Janeiro away:

A Full List of LatAm Countries Eastern/Central European Men Should Consider for Residency

MEXICO The current minimum monthly income to demonstrate economic self-sufficiency for temporary residency in the United States of Mexico is $4, 393 at the current exchange rate. For many IT workers in Poland or Estonia this amount is not out of reach, but the key is whether such income can be maintained on an ongoing remote basis.

Finding a Mexican employer even in highly in-demand fields like fintech/DeFi is unlikely, so your best bet would probably be to connect to US or EU expats living in Mexico via LinkedIn or other platforms and offer your services in these fields months in advance of a planned move.

Thankfully, if you don't need direct access to the U.S. border for travel or work, there are lower cost temporary residency options for EU remote workers in Central and South America. The following is a brief introductory list and not intended to be comprehensive:

CARRIBEAN ISLAND NATIONS

CUBA we're leaving Moscow's oldest and most controversial ally in the Americas off this list for obvious Central/Eastern European citizen reasons, especially for guys who plan to return to Poland or the Baltic States in just a few years. Maybe the authorities won't care, or maybe they'll interrogate you about your Cuban sojourn shortly after you step off the plane returning home to Warsaw, Tallinn or Riga. There are plenty of other options to choose from below that won't get you in trouble when you fly home to see your mother, preferably after the war fever in Europe has broken.

DOMINICA this small island nation in the southeastern Caribbean is 600 miles south of the larger and better known Dominican Republic, not far from the French-speaking island of Martinique. It is a natural gem with abundant rainforests, waterfalls and whale watching. While Dominica has a Citizenship by Investment (CBI) program whose cost is rising from $100,000 to $200,000 on June 30, 2024, it also launched a digital nomad visa program after the Pandemic. The price of the WIN visa? Just $800 for a single individual or $800 if you are registering a business in your own digital nomad visa holder's name. The WIN visa is valid for up to 18 months.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC With a relatively low cost of living and plenty of flights via New York or Miami in the U.S., we'd rate the DR highly on this list of LatAm digital nomad destinations, especially for the duration of an 18 months-length visa. As with other Latin American countries you will need to provide proof of non-local income and clear a regular criminal background check to stay on a rentista visa.

CENTRAL AMERICAN NATIONS

EL SALVADOR is by far our preferred option out of all in Central America if you do not choose to go to Mexico. Since the Pandemic this small country on the Pacific Ocean has attracted a number of Bitcoin enthusiasts and DeFi builders to connect and work with, and the public safety situation has drastically improved under President Nayib Bukele.

Contact our friend Will Lehr at Perpetual Playa (PP’s new site is under construction as of article publication in early May 2024) for residency details.

HONDURAS is going to be one of the lowest costs of living on this list, although the Rentista visa was recently raised to $2,500 per month income (not too high of a thresh hold to meet as a talented freelancer). Be prepared to wait a few months for processing, however.

Honduran beaches on the Caribbean side are gorgeous and the country also has a tri-border region on the Pacific side where Honduras is sandwiched between El Salvador and Nicaragua, with cool cinder cone volcanic islands to explore. For work, check out the start-up companies in Prospera ZEDE (a special economic zone) that may be looking to hire hard-working young talent in software engineering or medicine.

NICARAGUA Managua's political non-alignment with Washington offers extra peace of mind for any law-abiding Eastern European male that they won't get sent back to their homeland if they don't want to go back (see also, Nicaragua's closest ally in the Americas, Venezuela).

Unlike other countries, getting residency through investment doesn't require a lot: one offer we've seen is just a $30k investment into fractional ownership of a farm/exurban development project to obtain permanent residency (subject to stay-in-country for a large chunk of the year requirements).

The Nica government of the Reagan White House’s old nemesis President Daniel Ortega is Leftist, but it leaves the population and politically inactive foreigners alone. There is a growing expat community here which is used to living in non-resort conditions in the hills of the interior away from the pricier Gringo hub of San Juan Del Sur (abbreviated as SJDS).

We highly recommend reaching out to our German expat friend Tobi @Explore_Nica via X and Telegram to learn more about this beautiful, often overlooked country.

COSTA RICA long seen as a neutral haven during Central America's late Cold War-fueled conflicts of the 1980s, CR has suffered a moderate uptick in crime across its Pacific beach front communities popular with tourists and retirees. But the popularity with Gringos and Canadians comes at a higher price: the monthly income threshold for a CR Rentista visa is $2,500/month and rents will be slightly higher here than in neighboring countries.

PANAMA has experienced major economic disruptions in recent months, with a drought impacting the eponymous Canal and a nationwide strike against an unpopular copper mining project. Thanks to the Biden Administration's open borders policies, the Panamanians are also dealing with a surge in illegal immigration through the Darien Gap, a 66 mile-long obstacle of dense jungle and swamps for the Pan-American Highway. Some criminal gangs are preying on these illegal migrants, a significant number of whom are Venezuelans as well as asylum seekers headed for the U.S. who flew to the Americas from Africa.

Despite many German and other EU retirees living quite comfortably in the more elevated and temperate northern part of the country, unless you already have good friends there, we would not recommend Panama at this time for an Eastern European male seeking residency on a tight budget.

SOUTH AMERICAN NATIONS

COLOMBIA After Paraguay, Colombia would be our top choice in South America if we were a single Eastern European male on account of Medellin's gorgeous 'eternal spring' climate and beautiful women. Obtaining residency through investment is a fairly low thresh hold, so if you have A) paying clients as a software or content developer in North America and B) at least 35,000 euros in savings to go 'all in' on a move to Colombia, it could be well worth it.

The only downsides as we see them, besides your Euro-Boomer clients possibly associating your new home base of Colombia with stereotypes leftover from the Narcos-depicted cocaine wars of the late 1980s and early 90s? Taxes under the current unpopular socialist government are rather high by South American standards, but those only apply if you're earning local income.

VENEZUELA As our ESW guest Andres Villarroel discussed on a recent ESW Webcast, Venezuela has a lot to offer in terms of gorgeous beaches and highly affordable living--once you go several dozen miles away from the capital, Caracas, to the surrounding smaller cities.

We strongly recommend contacting Andres on X or via his website and especially sign up for his $5/month Venezuela Insider newsletter and doing your research before coming here.

BRAZIL had as of late 2023 a still relatively cheap $18,000 in savings and/or monthly income requirement of $1,500 for digital nomad visa recipients.

Although some Eastern Europeans may find Portuguese a tad more difficult to pick up than Spanish, the cost of living in Brazil all depends on how close to the elite areas of Rio and Sao Paulo you want to be (and what trade offs you're willing to make in terms of living in a more exurban area or a dodgy part of Rio or SP). We would highly recommend anyone who speaks German to look at Florianópolis and further inland, the Brazilian little Bavaria of the tropics Blumenau in the southern part of this huge country.

ECUADOR has a digital nomad visa that is one of the cheapest and fastest to obtain in South America. Despite or perhaps due to the current political instability with narco gangs resisting the government's crackdown on their rampant criminality scaring off many Gringos and Canadians, Ecuadorian prices for room and board are some of the lowest in the Americas. That is, the lowest alongside the low cost of living in the South American 'Eastern Cone' of Peru and Bolivia.

PERU introduced its digital nomad visa fairly recently, in late 2023. We would recommend contacting expats who live there for more information about life outside the capital, Lima. The mountainous climate above the lowlands may be more attractive to East/Central Europeans who don't deal well with heat and humidity.

ARGENTINA The Argentines launched their digital nomad visa in mid-2022, and the new government of President Javier Milei has been shaking up the country's deeply entrenched Peronist bureaucracy.

That said, we would only recommend Argentina for European men with rock solid remote income or significant savings, as the nomad visa minimal income thresh hold is 2,500 euros per month or 30,000 euros per year. Buenos Aires rents have surged since December 2023 and Argentina still suffers from high costs for imported clothing or electronics, so don't come to Argentina expecting a super-low cost of living unless you're used to living on less or in more exurban/rural accommodations.

BOLIVIA A 90 day visa-free entry into Bolivia can be easily extended by another 90 days while you get your feet wet in this climatologically varied country of Andes Mountains and high altitude deserts. We recommend gradually acclimating yourself to the altitude here--La Paz is the highest elevated regular civilian traffic airport in the world--and contacting experienced expats before booking your ticket.

CHILE Has no digital nomad visa but the Chileans have what's called a transitory stay visa that is valid for every EU Schengen zone citizen AND citizens of Ukraine. This visa can be extended for an additional 90 days for a total of 180 days in the country. If you plan to stay longer consult a Chilean migration lawyer for details. In addition to the cooler Andes valleys or Southern Cone latitudes climate, Chile also has a surprisingly low proof of income thresh hold to stay on the transitory visa--just $1,000 a month.

PARAGUAY By far the best resource on moving here is our friends at Plan B Paraguay. This landlocked country is slightly larger than Germany in landmass, and enjoys a massive hydropower base load of electricity that attracts Bitcoin miners. The abundance of fresh water--with the exception of the arid Chaco region in the west approaching the Bolivian border--and good steaks and other organic food are all excellent selling points.

If you're convinced the Gringos, Russkies and Chinese just might go full Type 2 Million Sunblock on the Northern Hemisphere, Paraguay together with the Eastern and Southern Cones of South America are the safest places to be in the world (due in no small part, to the South Americans' far greater self-sufficiency in growing food). When it comes to avoiding nuclear war fallout, Paraguay clearly beats New Zealand.

The world is talking WAR No War or conscription here in Peaceful PY & You ain't getting called up to lose your life so elites can make some cash, spread their CBDC's, test weapons, push fear into the masses & kill innocent people Kick-back news article but still relevant.

@PlanBParaguay May 3, 2024

We heartily recommend contacting Paul at Plan B Paraguay before booking your PY trip.

Some Closing Thoughts from Serbian CTO and Writer Nick Stankovic

It's a Ponzi Scheme!

Ok, lots of people will tell you this story, but they will forget to mention one important thing: there are several billion humans going to work every day working for 8 hours or so. Working. Creating value (products and services). And so total value of everything in the world is increasing every day. There are new buildings and roads and chairs and cars and noodles and milk and YouTube videos and mobile phones and computers and people are able to get back to work because someone has cured them from a disease. This is why it's not really a Ponzi Scheme. Money is circulating and new money is constantly being added, but real value and assets are also constantly being added. There is real input to the scheme, human labor. Just think, there is more STUFF in the world today than 100 years ago. That's why there are also more dollars in the world.

So what is the problem then? The problem is that the world economy, specifically the US economy, is borrowing more than it is going to able to pay back and that it is producing. If you want to borrow money, you have to prove you can pay it back. Some people can borrow more, some less. Elon Musk can borrow more money than me. US can borrow more money than Serbia. But can Elon Musk borrow 10 trillion dollars? No, not even Elon Musk can borrow that much money because he will never make that much money in his entire life, but he can borrow maybe 30 billion dollars.

US is borrowing more than it will be able to pay back and even more than there is extra dollars out there to buy what it demands (that's why Federal Reserve has to "buy" it: print money). The problem is that printing money (by US government via the Federal Reserve) leads to inflation. High inflation = high interest rates. High interest rates depress economy => producing less => fewer taxes collected => more money printed => higher inflation. It's a downward spiral. Is US government then at least SPENDING less? Oh no, they are increasing spending. The worse it gets, the more money US is spending. How does this end? It ends in hyperinflation and collapse of the dollar. Nobody will want to buy US debt anymore because US is irresponsible. The trust will be lost. Hell, better to buy Serbia's debt than US debt at that point, or even better China's or Russia's.

So why doesn't the US just stop spending so much? Like all these wars at least. Why doesn't a drug addict just stop taking drugs, don't they see they are destroying their health and will probably one day die of it? It's an addiction. And feeling of entitlement. When you are rich and on top of the world for so long, you cannot just one day say, oh well, I guess I have to tighten my belt a bit and live more modestly. Who me? Elon Musk? Now have to give up my private plane and fly commercial, economy class?

There is a Plan B as well: world war. Because when there is a world war, then all debts are forgiven. Like this thing with Russia (frozen assets, etc) x 100. Don't have to pay China back anything. Millions dying, people are just happy to stay alive, frankly. Busy killing each other and trying to figure out what they are going to eat tomorrow. For US in particular, it's a safe(er) bet. Because of its geography, there is very unlikely to be war in the US itself. Very unlikely someone can mount an invasion of the US. The fighting will be in Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan....Kind of like WW2. The whole world went up in flames, flattened, except the US. US economy even grew during WW2, a bit like Russian economy is growing now, because of weapons manufacturing.

After the war, when there is nothing, US still has a lot of oil and wheat that others will have to buy it from the US because they won't be able to produce anything themselves because they will have nothing. Since they won't have anything to pay with, they will pay with their labor (debt). US will end up owning the whole world again. There is a slight risk the war goes nuclear, and some nukes are launched US way. That would be a bummer. The other risk is that US and its "allies" lose the conventional war. In that case, US "sphere of influence" will shrink and US will not be able to leech profits out of its domain. In other words, it will actually have to have an economy that is balanced and start making stuff.

But those are all risks worth taking. What else? Just give up and spend less? What would you do?

-- Nick Stankovic (a Serb CTO based in Serbia), X posts, May 3, 2024